In a war for democracy, why worry about public opinion?
Escalation in Afghanistan is aimed at rescuing the credibility of western power, whatever Afghans or westerners might want.
So reads a column by Seumas Milne in the Guardian.
When opponents of the Afghanistan War in Britain try to stimulate opposition to it it is interesting how their arguments about dead troops, casualties and the futility of trying to impose a Western style democracy compare with the mood of apathy combined with incomprehension that is as common in Poland.
The difference is that in Poland few feel the need to organise and protest in the streets as they do in London and only then because the opposition is led by embittered fanatics and professional propagandists and choreographers of the Stop the War Coalition, a motley array of Communists and Islamists.
Public opposition to the NATO War in Afghanistan is against it in every nation that has committed forces. In Poland, which has 2000 troops there, latest public opinion polls indicate that the majority of Poles are against with 81 percent of respondents in TNS OBOP poll favoring their withdrawal.
The reason is not just that 15 Polish soldiers have died on missions in Afghanistan but because the real reason for being there is unmentionable and considered too complicated to explain to the public whose consent is irrelevant where all mainstream political parties support the Afghanistan War.
As in Britain the discussion amongst the political elites revolves more around the conduct of the war but the reasons given are all the more arcane in Poland because the justification of 'the war on terror' can hardly be invoked where there is no domestic 'Islamist' threat.
The obvious reason NATO is in Afghanistan is not even mentioned by Seumas Milne, which is surprising given his Marxist-Leninist world view which provides the oversimplified rationale for terrorism within 'the West' by reversing official propaganda only to substitute it for more propaganda,
Now we are told it is a war to prevent al-Qaida-inspired terrorism on the streets of London, which shamelessly turns reality on its head. There were no such attacks before 2001, and both bombers and intelligence agencies have repeatedly identified the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan as a central motivation for those who try to launch them.
That fails to explain why Poland with one of the highest contingent of troops in both Afghanistan and Iraq has not been targeted by Al Qaida if it was merely a case that foreign policies that are not popular with Muslims causes the terror threat.
If that was the case Milne would need to explain why there has not been a terror attack in Poland and that would reveal the danger inherent in his "explanation" as there are by contrast with Britain, hardly any Muslims in Poland with roots in Asia.
Instead of fearmongering and exploiting the feeling of unease about the war and its consequences to hammer home propaganda according to predetermined ideological agenda, it is essential to understand the war is about geopolitics and energy security.
There is almost no mention or discussion in the media on how Afghanistan fits in with the great Game for the control of Caspian oil and gas or how the military actions in Helmland are connected to the TAPI pipeline scheduled to be built through it in 2010.
There is absolutely no recognition that these geostrategic aims dominate priorities in Afghanistan and that they necessarily undercut the very 'stability' that NATO seeks to create. The pipeline could at least get a mention for that reason.
For all pipeline states are dominated by factions trying to overthrow the leadership or doing dirty deals as politics becomes just the way to gain control over the distribution of the transit fees.
The same is true of Georgia which is why there is a cycle of authoritarian repressions and uprisings since the BTC pipeline was built and which has continued irrespective of the 'Rose Revolution' of 2003.
According to petro-economist John Foster in his Pipeline Through a Troubled Land converting Afghanistan into an 'energy bridge' is likely to bring still more problems than it solves.
It will entrench the power of clans and warlords and the role of opium in financing opposition to those who get the transit fees worth up to $160 million dollars, a lot of money in an impoverished Afghanistan.
The Taliban will then have to threaten the pipeline with destruction to destroy the existing political set up whilst it derives most of it's revenue from opium farming and heroin trafficking, supplying the drugs bored consumers in the West crave.
Naturally, the USA could have just done the pipeline deal with the Taliban without invading in 2001 but the attacks of 9/11 proved that the Taliban were unreliable and that the West needed to impose stability if the pipeline could be built.
It is believed that this would bind Afghanistan to the West and connect neighbouring states together, offset the effects of collusion between Russia and China through the SCO negotiated months before 9/11 and be the alternative to the proposed IPI pipeline.
The TAPI pipeline carries Turkmenistan gas directly through Afghanistan without it going through either Russia or Iran. It gives NATO a stake in all future developments in the Caspian without which these states could move closer to an energy hungry China.
Milne is partly correct when he mentions the threat to NATO's credibility if it pulls out of Afghanistan.
The 'surge' in Afghanistan is designed to prove that 'stability' can be enforced and NATO is a reliable partner in ensuring the TAPI can be guarded.
From Afghanistan to Kosovo, it has been regional stability and the contruction of pipeline networks that bypass Russia and connect Europe to Central Asia that are central to NATO.
When Madelaine Albright spoke in 1999 of NATO 'credibility' in stopping the Balkan Wars she meant NATO's capacity to enforce and protect Western interests.
In Kosovo the threat was to Macedonia and the corridor taking the pipeline from Bulgaria through to Albania from the Black Sea to the Adriatic ( the AMBO pipeline ).
In Georgia, the desire to join NATO and NATO's enthusiasm is part of the plan to expand and project NATO power through the Caucasus into Central Asia.
Here the protection NATO can afford is connected to the BTC pipeline which connects the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea and thence to 'the stans'.
The real reason why Afghanistan is turning into 'another Iraq' or another Vietnam' is because the humanitarian justification was an ethical fig leaf for strategic advancement of Western energy security.
Energy has become an issue of strategic discussions at NATO, and the issue was reviewed at the 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest at which Poland's Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski acted as a forthright advocate of Georgia entering NATO.
The Summit Declaration declared that NATO will support the protection of critical energy infrastructure,and that a 'progress report' on energy security be compiled ready for the 2009 Summit.
Two years previous, the 2006 Summit Declaration proclaimed support for a coordinated initiative to advance energy infrastructure security.
Recently NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer has argued that Nato should have an offensive and interventionist role in struggles over resources by protecting oil and gas pipelines identified as critical to the west.
In Lloyd's news article reveals the anxiety of Western businessmen over energy supplies that Scheffer shares when he writes,
In the security business, some crises and challenges pass by fairly quickly; but there are others that are likely to be on our agenda for a long time, and which, therefore, call for a long-term and concerted response. This is the case with energy security.
Although many energy consumers will be relieved that oil prices and other commodities are tumbling on international markets, the factors that have pushed energy security to the top of the agenda are likely to remain with us.
The economies of China and India will continue to grow, and their legitimate quest for reliable sources of supply will no doubt continue. The field of consumers is growing fast; so is demand. For both suppliers and consumers, ensuring reliable supplies is a must.
The Secretary General sees NATO in two roles, protecting the sea lanes from the Middle East against terror attacks and Somali pirates and secondly, something that reveals the true reason for NATO presence in Afghanistan-the aim of
... energy security with our partners from the Middle East and the Mediterranean. Those partners include Qatar, which is the world’s largest producer of liquified natural gas, but also major energy producers in Central Asia such as Kazakhstan or Turkmenistan.
Richard Boucher, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, said in September 2007:
One of our goals is to stabilize Afghanistan, so it can become a conduit and a hub between South and Central Asia so that energy can flow to the south. . . . and so that the countriesof Central Asia are no longer bottled up between two enormous powers of China and Russia, but rather they have outlets to the south as well as to the north and the east and the west.
Richard Boucher asserts that energy security as not being dependent “on any one route, on any one customer, or on any one investor.” He argues that European energy security is important to the United States and also to Europeans and that it “is based on having multiple sources."
U.S. Ambassador Thomas Pickering of the Afghanistan Study Group in Washington, D.C. when Interviewed on CBC's As It Happens (January 30, 2008), said:
Afghanistan is of strategic importance, a failed state in the middle of a delicate and sensitive region that borders on a number of producers of critical energy.
Any assessment of what Afghanistan is really about is hardly worth bothering with unless statements about 'interests'. 'economic development and 'stability' are interpreted in the light of such hard facts.
So for all despite Milne's scorn about 'a war for democracy', democratic legitimacy is underpinned by energy because Western business and lifestyles have been developed around it as Michael T Klare demonstrates in Blood and Oil ( 2005 ).
This unfortunately is especially those like Poland where the energy intensive American model is seen as one to be emulated and global warming is denied by politicians like the Kaczynski twins and shock therapy economist Leszek Balcerowicz
Without it the economy as it has developed since WW2 and with the consumer society, the car, the supermarket and mass tourism, the masses can be rendered so docile that they will not care about the cost of tapping energy reserves in far off lands.
Having missed out on the post 1945 economic boom in Western Europe and having only been without Communism for 20 years, many Poles care little for where the energy comes from and crave Western style comforts and the right to drive ever more popular American SUV's which now clog the streets of Krakow.